Interesting Perspective on NFL Issues

by: Michael Steffes

I found this article/blog post on the current situation facing the NFL, and I thought that it was worth sharing. It is from a man who knows labor issues like an owner, but cheers for teams like a fan; Mark Cuban.

In this post, Cuban uses some hypothetical situations to illustrate the current situation. He talks about how the salary cap works, and why it isn't as equitable as most make it out to be.

Cuban believes that Baseball and Football are two sports that could actually survive and benefit from not having a salary cap, but instead focusing on revenue sharing and luxury taxes. This is because it takes more than 2 or 3 players for teams in these sports to be successful. He argues that in the NBA and NHL, a cap is must, because having one or two great players can drastically change the fortune of a team.

Anyway, for those looking to further educate themselves on the upcoming issues facing the NFL, this piece is worth reading. Enjoy.

P.S. (off-topic) Mr. Cuban, forget the Cubs and focus your efforts on buying a hardball team in the Northwest. Pretty please. END Read More!

First Big Payday

by: Michael Steffes

I thought that with nothing else going on it maybe fun to see how much the newest Seahawks can expect to get paid this upcoming season.

I went back and looked at the players selected in the same draft slots the Seahawks held this year and researched their salaries. This years draft class can expect any where from a 5-8% raise. Here is what I came up with. To see...

First Round...Lawrence Jackson (28)

Last year's 28th pick was San Fran's Joe Staley. He received a 5 year 8 million dollar contract. He got 4.135 million in bonuses.

Lo Jack can expect an deal in the neighborhood of 8.5 million. His bonus money should hit 4.4 million

Second Round...John Carlson (38)

Last years 38th pick was the Raiders selection of Zach Miller. His deal was for 4 years and 5.6 million. He got .965 mil as a singing bonus as a rookie and well get a tasty 2.522 for making the team this year.

Carlson should get 4 years 6 mil. He can expect the bonus money to be about 3.6 million. Now if we can just get a 7% increase on Millers 444 yards and 3 touchdowns for a rookie tight end.

Fourth Round....Red Bryant (121)

Last years pick was troubled young man, Marcus Thomas to Denver. He was cleared on his most recent charges though, so he he won't have to spend any of his 4 year 2.093 mil on an attorney. Maybe he should consider using part of his 428K signing bonus on a retainer just in case.

Big Red should expect something close to 4 years 2.25 million with a friendly 450K to sign.

Fifth Round...Owen Schmitt (163)

Tackle Brandon Frye form VT was selected by Houston here last year. His deal is for two years an 349K. He only got 160K to sign. Pays to be a fourth rounder huh.

Owen can expect something in the vicinity of a 2 year deal worth 375K, w/ 170K to sign. Don't worry Owen, 170K buys a lot of coasters and beer. And don't worry Schmitt fans, even though sometimes mid round picks sign short deals, they are under team control for another year and become RFA's the year following.

Sixth round....Tyler Schmitt (189)

Last year, new Seahawk Joel Filani was selected by Tennessee in this spot. Well, he was released so his contract stayed mostly a mystery, but Courtney Taylor was selected 8 spots later and he got 4 years and 1.757 million. I would think that Mr. Schmitt may break the mold a touch due to his position. I guess that he gets 4 years and 1.6. Taylor only got 90K upfront. I will guess Schmitt gets 100K as a signing bonus.

7th round...Justin Forsett (233) and Brandon Coutu (235)

The players in these spots where two wide receivers. Chandler Williams went 233rd to Minnesota. Chansi Stucky went 235th to the Jets. Williams data is unavailable as well, but he was selected right after one Steve Vallos who got two years and 382K with a 47,000 dollar signing bonus. Forsett can expect a two year 405K deal with 50k upfront.

Stucky got a 4 year 2.15 million dollar deal with 35K upfront. Expect Coutu to receive something close around the same. 2.30 for his four team controlled years seems right, with 37,500 upfront.

All of my figures are based on about a 6% raise and finding a nice round figure. Just thought this would give an interesting perspective on how draft round equals payday...or not, depending. Either way, these guys figure to have a touch more disposable income this year than they did last. Good luck rooks! Read More!

Rookie Pool Allotment

by: Michael Steffes

Just in case you were interested in this kind of stuff, the rookie pool figures came out today. After exercising the 28th pick in the first round, and trading away their third round pick, the Seahawks ended up 25th in rookie pool allotment money. Funny how that works out, considering the Hawks had the 25th draft slot. They are allowed to use $3,674,960 to sign their rookies.

In a way, these numbers are part of an outdated system. Agents and front offices have found plenty of ways to maneuver around the rookie pool. The intention of this rule is to keep rookie salaries down by giving the team a fixed amount they can't go over to sign rookies. What generally happens is a lot of money gets pushed into later years, with teams knowing that high picks will be given that amount of time to prove themselves.

As for the Seahawks, it means that they will use approximately 3.7 million dollars of their approximately 11 mil in cap space to sign rookies. The rest of the money will be used for extensions, emergency, and possibly LTBE incentives which will increase their cap space next year. If you want more info on how the rookie pool works, check out the ESPN article which released the figures. END Read More!

No June 1st Designation for Shaun

by: Michael Steffes

As I have been speculating about in this space since the Lofa and Marcus deals, the Seahawks have decided to release Shaun Alexander without the June 1st designation. Clare Farnsworth of the PI is reporting this.

This was the smart move. The Hawks had accumulated over 10 million dollars in cap space. By not designating Shaun as a June 1st, they just lost 125,000 of that space. However, if he had been designated, two years of prorated bonus would be charged against next years cap. That would have totaled 4.6 million.

Essentially, by freeing up enough space through the offseason, they were able to use 125K of cap space this year to free up an extra 4.6 to spend next year. If they so choose.

I haven't mentioned it in awhile, but I have been quietly keeping up with the Salary Cap Data. As always, the link remains in the right sidebar. I currently show the Hawks with 107 million committed against what projects to be 121 million dollar cap in 2009. Expect someone to add some likely to be earned incentives once the team figures out how much money they have after signing the draft picks. This will add more cap space for next year. END Read More!

Money To Spare

It is funny how this offseason has gone. At one point the Hawks seemed to be passing on more than reasonable deals all because of salary cap constraints. Well....now, after locking up two of their best young defensive players, the Hawks have money to spare. This is what the professor John Clayton has to say on his ESPN Blog.

Salary cap room to breathe: The Seahawks were concerned about being tight against the cap. They had more than $9 million of their cap eaten up by the Marcus Trufant franchise tag. Now that Trufant signed a six-year, $50.2 million deal, the Seahawks have plenty of room. His contract saved the team $6.7 million of cap room. After his deal, the Seahawks had $13.9 million of room, which is why they had no problem giving kicker Olindo Mare a two-year, $3.5 million deal. They would like to get an extension with linebacker LeRoy Hill, too.

I think the next move seems clear. It is releasing Shaun and taking the whole hit this year. By restructuring Kerney and Grant, it is possible they have created cap hurdles that will have to be maneuvered in the future. But by avoiding any dead money, this team will have flexibility to keep the defense together. Especially when you consider that the team will be loading up on young offensive players in the upcoming drafts. END Read More!

Running Back Money

I mentioned that I was preparing this earlier in the week. Many of you know I am in a graduate business program. Here is a look at the running back picture from a fiscal point of view.

Remember, to fans it is just cap space and signing bonuses, but to Paul Allen, this money really comes out of his very large bank account. I am sure he is in no danger of going broke, but still, a man like that doesn't get to where he is by wasting resources.

If you would like to see how and where the money is going.......

First take a look at this chart, and I will do my best to explain it...


What you can see here is the actual amounts of money being paid out to running backs over a 5 year period. The money being paid is what the team actually has to dispense if the player is on the team is on the top line of each back breakdown. This is coupled with their bonus amounts and the year paid in the first column.

The first thing you can see is that over the next 5 years, the Hawks are now committed to 8.74 million in salary less with the new backs than if they stuck with Shaun. this is somewhat offset by the bonuses just paid, however you will see, the team will probably get these savings back. This by itself is interesting, but really would only matter on a balance sheet. All of us know that Shaun wasn't going to make it all the way to 2012. So lets look at this year by year.

The first thing I have done is highlight what I am calling the break even year of the deal in yellow. In these years the Hawks can release the player at any time and not only eliminate the base salaries, but also save money against the salary cap. That is usually when a team will consider releasing someone. As you can see within 2 years Jones could be gone and in 3 years it makes the most sense for TJ.

Another reason that it is likely they will last this long, is that the Hawks actually are spending more actual cash in the next two years than they would have with Shaun. This is because the signing bonuses are paid all up front. In TJ's case, they pay him half this year and half next year. So, in essence, the Hawks are willing to pay 3.7 million over the next two years, to save close to 9 million if all the deals go their length.

On top of this, the team saves cap space. So one could say they are paying the bonuses to by back 1.75 million of cap space this year. That is assuming a June 1st cut. This means that cap room will take a hit next year, as the new backs cost 2 million more than the cap savings.

Stallz suggested this earlier....with the cap space the Hawks have left, and the fact that it would only be 125K hit, they may choose to release him out right and push the money to next year. If that is the case, they would pay the extra 3.7 million to create 7.8 million next year. This is clearly the best value, as long as the production on the field is equal.

Finally, lets look at the new running backs under the scenario that they get cut early. The Hawks can actually shave another 9 million in salary, and 5.4 mil in cap space by releasing Jones and Duckett once they clear the break even point. This counters the money the spent up front in bonuses and hands the team back that original 9 million they saved on the base salaries.

Shaun's contract, if he would have made it to the end, would have counted 33.2 million till 2012 (ouch!). By cutting new backs after the contracts "break even", Paul Allen saves 18 million in salary. He had to pay 8 million in signing bonuses though. The saving realized work out to 10 million in real hard cash. That ain't chump change. If the backs are on the roster past the break even year, then I am sure the Hawks will forgo the savings because obviously the players are preforming.

Also, the Hawks will realize significant cap savings, in 4 out of 5 of the years, no matter when or how Shaun is released. Which is good for the football side of the equation.

Finally, consider that the Hawks have been able to add TWO backs and still realize these savings and it looks pretty impressive. The NFL has changed, two back systems are in vogue. Jim Mora was one of the first to employ an effective multi back system several years ago and lead the league in rushing. That could be what the Hawks are thinking. Clearly, the idea here was two backs for less than the price of one.

Now lets juts hope that the production on the field is greater than what Hawk fans have seen the last few years. That would be the real gain.


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Hawks Have Room

To keep making moves, if they want. According to Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports, the expanded cap has provided an usual amount of wiggle room.

This article, written yesterday, shows the Hawks with 9.1 million in cap space, as of last Thursday. If we assume that Julius Jones is counting approximately 2.5, that still leaves a tasty, 6.6 mil.

It is possible that the Hawks could clear 10 mil more simply by re-upping long term with Trufant and then the inevitable June 1st release of Shaun. While they wouldn't realize the savings from releasing 37 until 6/1, that money could be allocated for rookie contracts. In other words, the Hawks can spend 6 million now if they want, and even more if they can redo Trufant.

It appears that the team doesn't have much interest in DJ Hackett. Maybe it is the Wa Post's report that he doesn't practice hard.

My best bet is that the next two signings are Ellis Wymns, and his needed versatility on the D line, and a back up linebacker, maybe Caleb Miller. These are the biggest depth needs right now, and at this point, depth is all that is available.

Also note Arizona's cap space....the have the least amount, however it looks like they finally got a deal done with Larry Fitzgerald this morning. Lets hope it too late for them to do anything substantial

UPDATE-- Jones' cap hit appears to only be 1.7 mil, Also John Clayton is on KJR saying the Hawks only have 3.2 million in space. So hard to determine the truth in these matters. When I factored that only the top 50 salaries count into my spreadsheet, the team appears to be at 6 mil under. Clayton is hard to disagree with though. Read More!

Mike Wahle's Bonus

Hello, I have this info I wanted to pass along. I was going to include it in a post once i got Locklear's final numbers, but that may be a couple of days away.

Mike Wahle's signing bonus was only 3.5 million. He also has roster bonuses of 100k in 09' and 10'. The total contract is 5 years 20 million. The first year cap hit is only 2.7 million. Before Locks deal, this leaves the Hawks with more than 12 million in cap space. This info came from someone with access to the NFLPA database.

I said it at the time, had it been a big bonus, his agent would have bragged about it. To be honest, even i didn't expect it to be this low. I thought the contact would reach 25 million. Hawk fans will take it. Lets hope he can still play. Now we can keep our fingers crossed that one or two guys get signed before Friday. Read More!

Mo Money, Mo Money, Mo Money???

With our first Free Agent in town, it is a good time to continue the examination of the Seahawk's Salary cap. Also, I have added a link to the original spreadsheet (done by Ian Whetstone) on the right. I will be updating it as needed. Currently, i have simply removed Mack Strong's 08' salary and added Howard Green.

After reading this article right here, about how the Redskins believe they will trade for Chad Johnson and sign Lance Briggs, I got to thinking how could this be possible considering a week ago they were 20mil over the cap.

They have already begun restructuring deals. So I reviewed the Seahawks contracts and have concluded that their are two deals that when restructured will provide a good deal of cap savings.
First, Deion Grant. Its simple, he is due a 5 mil roster bonus. He is signed for four more years. By converting this to a signing or option bonus, this can be prorated over the 4 year period thus saving close to 4 million.

Second, Big Walt. He is always willing to restructure. Plus, chances of us cutting him are slim. If we convert his 8.6 mi salary into a prorated bonus. His contract runs through 2012, that is 4 years of proration. While it makes his cap hit big next year, his salaries actually go down after that, making it very manageable

The salary spreadsheet I am working with is right here. Besides, in two years there might not be a cap! Read More!

Paul Allen has Deeeeeeeeeeep Pockets

As I wait until midweek to see if the franchise tag is used on any of the current crop of free agents before continuing with the offseason preview, i give this to you for discussion...

This is a discussion that I had with a good friend the other day. Why not go redskins this year and rework everybody's deals to make room for the best and the brightest of the free agent crop? There is trouble brewing on the labor negotiations front. Check this out from Profootballtalk.com. It is not just Jerry Jones either, other owners have been making noise about opting out of the CBA.
This would seem to lead to the end of the salary cap, if you believe Gene Upshaw. As Seahawk fans, we should celebrate this! This is the one local franchise who this helps tremendously. I ran across this article from Klaus Kneale of Forbes. I read this a couple of weeks ago, and it backs up this theory.

Just think about this.... Paul Allen has 16.8 billion!!!!!! (why the hell did he sell the plane?), Second/third are Malcom Glazer and Wayne Huizinga w/ 2.5 bil (How can they even afford a nice yacht?? seriously!)

Discuss..... Do we care if the salary cap disappears?? and if this is really a possibility in 09' why not sign big names for Holmgren's last year and hope we never have to pay the proverbial piper in regards to the cap? Read More!

Pork Chop.... TD Threat!

John Clayton reported this morning on KJR that the Seahawks reworked 8 million dollars worth of "LTBE" incentives into Chop's contract.

I mentioned this before, and now is as good a time as any to explain it.

LTBE stands for Likely to be Earned. Because that type of incentive is "likely" to be reached it counts against the cap. However, what makes an incentive likely to be earned. Well, the incentives that are "likely" to be earned are designated by the current collective bargaining agreement. Often, these are common incentives, such as yards, touchdowns, completion rate, etc. If these incentives aren't reached, the team is credited the money back at the beginning of the next year.

So here is how it works to teams advantage, with the Seahawks and Pork Chop as a perfect example. Hypothetically, if the Hawks redid Chop's deal with an LTBE incentive that if he would catch 5 touchdown passes he would earn 8 million dollars. This is what the Seahawks had left over at the deadline to count money towards last year. Now touchdowns are likely to earned by most, hence there designation as LTBE, just not so much for backup lineman. So, because Chop, love him as we do, is no Mike Vrabel, the Hawks get an 8 mil cap credit this year. Do we get that whole 8 million??? If you look in the offseason preview we talked about how the Hawks got 3.3 last year, and i conservatively estimated at 2.5 this year. Well that number might go up now, but not all the way to 8 mil.

Why???? Because players also have incentives that aren't designated as LTBE incentives and these don't count against the cap. However, when players reach them, we pay them out of this years cap.

Get it, Got it, Great. I hope you are pickin' up what i am putting down! Read More!

OFFSEASON PREVIEW PART 2: Breaking Down the Cap and Resigning Our Own

OFFSEASON PREVIEW PART II
WORKING WITH THE CAP & WHO IS COMING BACK

There seems to be a lot of differing info going around about where the Seahawks stand in regards to the salary cap. Everybody knows we made a pretty big splash in free agency last year and it worked out well. However, there are now quite a few big contracts on the books. Lets take a look at where the Seahawks stand.

First off... the NFL Salary Cap for 2008 is set at 116 million. Proof of that is here

One website commonly referred to is askthecommish.com. They have the Seahawks salary cap situation listed as 9.55 under with 44 players under contract. This is in the bottom half of teams in the league.

However, John Clayton has told callers on his radio show that the Hawks are actually about 19 mil under the cap.

I am basing the information I am using in this analysis from a person named Ian Whetstone. (thanks Ian). Unfortunately for Ian, he is a Steeler fan. Fortunately for us, he tracks the salaries of many NFL teams, including the Seahawks. I posted a copy of his Seahawks spreadsheet here. I plan on using this to track the Hawks salary cap situation throughout the free agency period.

According to this, the Seahawks are currently 17.7 million under the cap. The team received 3.3 million back last year in cap credits. These usually are in the form of likely to be earned incentives that aren't earned, on purpose. Maybe i will go into more detail on that later. So lets be conservative and just say the Hawks are 20 mil under. Lets start there.

This is enough money to get our own players resigned. For Sure. However, franchising Marcus Trufant puts us in a bind. The tag is 9.46 million. Almost half of what the Seahawks have available. However, I see some very interesting cap #'s.

Here a list of who I,personally, would cut, along with the cap implications.

Shaun Alexander (June 1st cut) Saves 4.6 this year
Tom Ashworth Saves 1.1 mil this year
Jason Babin Saves .957 mil
Mike Green Saves 1.3 mil
Chris Gray (retires?) saves 1.2

None of these players aren't replaceable. In fact, one could argue they are quite expendable at these costs. Depth does take a hit, but Shaun is really the only big one, and i guess Gray if he wants to keep playing, but he almost retired last year. With this..... Voila!.... 29 million under the cap. About what we had last year. What do we do with all this mooola?

Lets see who we can resign..... WHEN THE SEAHAWKS OFFSEASON PREVIEW CONTINUES

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