Week 16: 49ers at Seahawks (Game Thread)
The Seahawks and 49ers are eerily similar teams. Both tend to play better in the second half of games than they do in the first, Seattle moreso than San Francisco. Both teams feature strong defenses; the 49ers' defense has fared better than Seattle's this season, but the difference isn't as great as you might think:
| Rush Yds/Att Allowed |
Pass Yds/Att Allowed |
Comp. % | 3rd Down Conv Allowed (%) |
1st Half Pts/Game |
2nd Half Pts/Game |
Int/Att % | Sack % | |
| Seahawks | 3.7 (4th) | 6.9 (11th-T) | 60.4 (17th) | 35.3 (10th) | 10.9 (13th) | 8.6 (6th) | 4.4 (2nd) | 5.7 (24th) |
| 49ers | 3.3 (1st) | 6.9 (11th-T) | 58.8 (10th) | 35.1 (8th) | 4.9 (1st) | 8.1 (3rd) | 4.1 (4th) | 6.3 (18th) |
Likewise, both teams' offenses depend heavily on their ability to run the ball to bolster their passing attacks. When and where they've both found success in their running attack, however, is an entirely different story:
| Rush Yds/Att | Rush Yds/Game | Rush TDs | Rush Power (Total) |
Rush Power Left |
Rush Power Center |
Rush Power Right |
|
| Seahawks | 3.8 (27th-T) | 103.9 (22nd) | 13 (10th-T) | 76% (1st) | 70% (9th) | 89% (4th) | 67% (9th) |
| 49ers | 4.2 (16th) | 125.0 (9th) | 11 (14th-T) | 47% (31st) | 58% (26th) | 36% (29th) | 44% (24th) |
(As noted in this article, the rush power stat just shows the percentage of run plays the team ran on 3rd and 4th downs with two or less yards to go that resulted in either a 1st down or a touchdown. Short yardage runs in 1st-and-goal and 2nd-and-goal situations are included as well.)
As you can see, the 49ers have been pretty good at racking up plenty of yardage, but when it comes to grinding out those tough yards, well, they've been coming up short all season long. Assuming this trend holds true, the Seahawks have a good shot at forcing the 49ers to beat them with Alex Smith's throwing arm. Of course, the 49ers will be doing their best to bottle up Marshawn Lynch to force the Seahawks to rely heavily on Tarvaris Jackson, but there's a big difference between bottling up an injured Frank Gore and stopping Beast Mode when he's within spitting distance of the 1st down marker.
This game is winnable; the Seahawks are on a hot streak, they have home field advantage, and they have more riding on the outcome of this game than the 49ers. Remember, if the Seahawks don't win this week and next, their slim playoff hopes are sunk. By comparison, the 49ers are just jockeying for better seeding, having already locked up a playoff berth by winning the division, plus they're working with an extra-shortened week of preparation following a draining win over the Steelers on Monday Night Football.
SEA! HAWKS!
