[Due to illness, I’m afraid my biggest accomplishment these past two weeks has been emptying several boxes of Kleenex.  The good news is that my head is finally clearing up, so I should be back to providing more content for you guys to peruse come next week.  It’s damned nice to feel like a functional human being again.]

In their game against Carolina, the Seahawks’ offense improved in some key areas (which I’ll discuss further in the stats sections).  The passing game isn’t quite firing on all cylinders yet, and they were helped out by some glaring mistakes in coverage by the Panthers’ secondary¹, but overall things appear to be headed in the right direction. 

Russell Wilson has a hell of a lot of potential, but he’s still a rookie who is not above making aggravating rookie mistakes.  As I said in the comments for last Sunday’s post-game thread, I’m not going to worry too much so long as he keeps improving.  I know some of you would rather see what Matt Flynn can do under center, but a change at the quarterback position is the most potentially disruptive personnel switch a coach can inflict on an offense.  At this stage in the game, the only way Wilson is likely to get sidelined is if he goes into a Blaine Gabbert-style tailspin and starts to play progressively worse each week.  For now, things are nowhere near that dire.

 

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(Note: For explanations of some of the stats included in this piece, please see the first article in the series.)

Rushing Averages

Game	Yds/Att	Yds/G	Yds/Att Allowed	Yds/G Allowed
1 (ARI)	3.48	115	2.15	43
2 (DAL)	4.44	182	3.06	49
3 (GB)	4.38	127	4	84
4 (STL)	5.26	179	2.78	75
5 (CAR)	2.8	98	4.32	82
Total	4.08 (13th)	140.2 (7th)	3.23 (3rd)	66.6 (3rd)

Going by just the team averages above, week five was the worst performance of the season for the Seahawks’ run offense and run defense.  However, things start to look a whole lot better when you take a closer look at the individual stats that went in to those totals.

The Panthers gained more yards per rushing attempt against the Seahawks than any other team they’ve faced this season, and most of that success was thanks to Cam Newton.  On his seven carries, Newton averaged 6 yds/att, which goes to show just how dangerous a good scrambler can be when he takes off with the ball.  The defense performed much better against the Panthers’ running backs.  Jonathan Stewart earned 4 yds/att on 4 carries, but most of that yardage came from a single 11-yard gain, and DeAngelo Williams was held to just 1 yd/att on his six rushing attempts.

On offense, Lynch ran like his usual dominating self, averaging 4.05 yds/att on his 21 carries.  Wilson and Robert Turbin, on the other hand, were not so hot.  Wilson averaged 2.4 yds/att on his 5 scrambles, and Turbin averaged a measly 1.5 yds/att on his 4 carries.  In short, the rookies had a bad night, but Beast Mode is still producing.

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The margin of victory may have only been four points, but this was a complete victory.  The Seahawks threw for more yardage, ran for more yardage, converted more first downs, racked up more sacks, and forced more fumbles than the Panthers.  Carolina's defense did perform better than expected by intercepting two passes, scoring more points than Newton and the offense, and holding the Seahawks to gain only 2.8 yards per carry, but Lynch still managed to fight for yardage and convert downs when it mattered most.

Feel free to swear at Giacomini to your heart's content in the comments below, but this was a solid win.

The Seahawks are on the road again this week taking on yet another opponent they should be able to beat in the Panthers. 

The lynchpin of Carolina's offense is still Cam Newton, who through four weeks has been putting up similar numbers to those from his Pro Bowl rookie season.  He's getting plenty of help in the ground game from DeAngelo Williams, but his only consistent receiving threats have been ex-Bears TE Greg Olsen and WR Steve Smith, who's finally beginning to slow down at the age of 33.  Their offense has also had trouble converting the offensive yardage they've been racking up into points on the scoreboard, and I don't see that changing this afternoon against Seattle's defense.

Aside from a 7-sack performance against the Falcons last week, the Panthers' defense has done little to inspire confidence this season.  With RG John Moffitt ruled out for the second week in a row, sacks are going to be a concern for Seattle, but Caroline is also 23rd in points allowed, 30th in rushing yards per attempt allowed, and 28th in completion percentage allowed.  If the Seahawks are going to shift their passing game out of neutral this season, this would be an ideal time to do it.

If the game comes down to a Martyball-style struggle for field position, special teams could end up tipping the game in Seattle's favor.  Jon Ryan has the 4th best yards per punt average in the NFL (50.3), while Carolina's Brad Nortman has the 3rd worst (41.2).

I’ve spent a lot of time this week watching and re-watching pass play after pass play from the Rams game, and in that time I’ve heard a lot of folks voice their opinions on the subject.  Mostly, those opinions are brief, single-solution affairs:  Wilson is too short, or too inexperienced, or not Flynn; Okung/Giacomini/etc. is causing the rest of the o-line to fail in pass protection; Bevell wouldn’t know a good play call if it bit him on the ass; etc.

It’s easy to heap blame on one guy and call it a day, but football is rarely that simple.  It takes eleven guys working together to pull off a play, and when things go wrong throughout a game there’s rarely just one guy at fault.  Here’s what I learned from the 32 pass plays (pass attempts, scrambles, and sacks) I examined on film this time around:

1) The o-line’s pass blocking needs work, but isn’t a total wash.

By my count, the o-line did its job effectively on 18 of those plays and broke down in whole or in part on the other 14.  The right side had the most trouble, with six plays in which linemen were beaten or let a rusher come in free through the B and C gaps.  The middle of the line let rushers through the A gaps four times, and the left side failed twice.

Several of those problem plays were caused by either having no extra blockers or ineffective extra blockers in-line or in the backfield when the defense overloaded one side with rushers.  Lynch is a great runner, but his blocking leaves something to be desired – why Robinson was kept on the sideline in those situations is beyond me.

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The Rams game was a tough one to watch.  Like most of you, I spent a lot of that one pacing back and forth, shouting at the screen.  I swore at the special teams unit for failing to notice Amendola on the fake field goal touchdown, I cursed the day Giacomini was born every time his number left an official’s mouth, and I vented a stream of pure, searing hatred in the general direction of Darrell Bevell.

And really, that’s why I like to look at stats.  I can yell whatever I want during the game, but poring over the numbers afterwards forces me to take a step back and look at the end result from a more objective (or at least less obscenity-laced) viewpoint.  There’s a lot that stats can’t tell us, mind you, but more often than not they point out things that I would have otherwise missed entirely.

This time around, there’s plenty to dislike about the offense’s performance, but the numbers are not as bad as you might think – and believe it or not, in some areas they actually improved.

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(Note: For explanations of some of the stats included in this piece, please see the first article in the series.)

Rushing Averages

Game	Yds/Att	Yds/G	Yds/Att Allowed	Yds/G Allowed
1 (ARI)	3.48	115	2.15	43
2 (DAL)	4.44	182	3.06	49
3 (GB)	4.38	127	4	84
4 (STL)	5.26	179	2.78	75
Total	4.4 (9th)	150.8 (6th)	2.99 (2nd)	62.75 (2nd)

After giving up 4 yds/att against the Packers, the defense returned to form by shutting down St. Louis’ run game.  By himself, Steven Jackson averaged 3.06 yds/att, so he fared better than the team as a whole, but he was still limited to 55 total yards; including the postseason, this marks the 17th time in 17 career games against the Seahawks that he’s failed to reach 100 yards rushing.  The streak is still alive!

On offense, the Seahawks were even better running the ball than the above stats would have you believe: Lynch ran for 5.9 yds/att on his 18 carries, and Turbin ran for 7.5 yds/att on 6 carries.  Those stats proved to be good enough to keep the team’s average above 5 yds/att even after adding in Washington and Wilson’s 2 yds/att on 8 combined carries.  The o-line may have had problems with their pass blocking throughout the game, but they demolished the Rams with their run blocking.

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Louis Bacigalupi posts comments on the site as LouieLouie.  He’s an accountant by trade and worked in a USFL front office.  He can be reached by email at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .

First of all, Seahawks fans need to stop hyperventilating.  Just relax, try taking a few slow, deep breaths, meditate (chant "ohm!"), envision yourself walking on a tropical beach at sunset, think about Angelina Jolie -- whatever it takes.  The Seahawks are 2-2. They have beaten two very good teams at home, Dallas and Green Bay, and have lost two close games on the road.  This team is not even close to falling into the rapture, so please stop and calm down.

I would like to reflect on a couple of issues that were major factors in Sunday's loss to the Rams.

Coaching:Carroll and co. were outcoached by Fisher and co. in that game, most obviously during the two trick kicking plays.  First, the Rams caught the entire Seahawks team picking their noses with the fake field goal that turned into a touchdown.  Later, when the Seahawks tried an onside kick, they didn't fool anyone.  Let's not forget how big those 4 points were in the game.  All things being equal, the Hawks would have been trying to kick a tying field goal at the end of the game instead of needing to score a touchdown.

Also, the Rams' pass rushing schemes kept guys stunting toward the middle to put guys in Wilson's face and consistently block his view of the field.  The Hawks were never able to adjust.

Third Down: The Rams were better on both sides of the ball on third down, especially when the Rams offense faced third and long.  The advantage may have simply been at quarterback because Sam Bradford put the ball right on the money several times in those situations.  A couple of times his receivers were open, but other times the reception was hotly contested by the defense, but in both cases he often had plenty of time to throw.

Penalties: Penalties took the Hawks out of the game.  There was no excuse for a couple of unnecessary roughness calls against Seattle which wound up ending drives by forcing them to play in first or second and fifteen.  That is the disadvantage of having a young team, and those penalties are correctable.

Pass Protection: The Seahawk o-line played at a high level in the run game, and both Lynch and Turbin had huge holes to run through all game long.  However, pass protection was not so good.  The o-line still has plenty of work ahead of them before they give Russell Wilson the kind of pass protection he needs to be an effective quarterback.  Rams defenders were all over him throughout the game, and that was also the case in Arizona.

Russell Wilson: The Rams' d-line made size matter for Wilson.  They brought pressure up the middle with their big guys and got in his face all day long.  As mentioned above, that was primarily an issue with pass protection and the coaching staff being unable to make adjustments to deal with what the Rams and Cardinals were able to do.

Wilson also had three interceptions in the game, but only one was really his fault.  On the interception to McCoy, who can account for a tight end falling down in his route as the pass is thrown?  The intercepted throw to Baldwin was not a perfect throw, so it was parlty Wilson's fault, but Baldwin was the one who let it bounce out of his hands and into the loving arms of a Rams defender.  The third interception, which occurred when Wilson was hit while throwing the ball, was all Wilson's fault, but those interceptions happen to every quarterback in the league.

At this time, Sam Bradford is the best quarterback in the NFC West.  Russell Wilson is a rookie quarterback with only four starts under his belt.  If Pete Carroll believes Wilson is the Seahawks' quarterback of the future, then he simply needs to keep playing.  Wilson's playing time early in the season will be a necessary investment that will pay off, hopefully, later in the season.  We only need to look at Christian Ponder to see a great example of this.

I happen to agree with Warren Moon that there will come a time when Carroll will need to take the shackles off of Wilson and allow him to play his game.  He played his game in Kansas City during the preseason, and that was when he won the starting job.  The shackles went on in the last preseason game against the Raiders, and there they remain.

Even after all of those issues the Seahawks had against the Rams, it was still a closely contested game.  The winning margin for the Rams were field goals of 58 and 60 yards.  How often is that going to happen?  Against Arizona, the Hawks had a first and goal opportunity to score the winning touchdown, but were unable to close the deal.  In the near future, I think the Seahawks will win those games.

So Seattle fans, stop hyperventilating.  Just relax, try taking a few slow, deep breaths . . .

For those of you who have been asking for Russell Wilson to be benched in favor of Matt Flynn, Pete Carroll has an answer for you:

"We have a little bit of a problem with Matt," Carroll said.  "Matt's still not full-speed. Anybody that thinks, OK, let's go with the other guy, well, he can't practice yet. ... He throws 15 throws a day, a couple days a week, so that's not really enough to get him ready in a game plan. He has to throw 50 balls a day to get ready, so that's not even an issue for us yet to have a chance to put him in."

In short, Wilson is going to be the guy under center for the foreseeable future -- or, like Charlie Whitehurst and Tarvaris Jackson last season, at least until an injured Flynn becomes a better option than a healthy Wilson.

The Rams are no longer a circled win.  That's good news for the level of competition in the NFC West, but it isn't much comfort right now, especially when the game ends on a perfectly thrown ball by Wilson to a receiver who slips and falls before it arrives.

Brandon Gibson played better than advertised, and Sam Bradford showed great accuracy in the face of the Seahawks' pass rush, but for the most part St. Louis' offense was held in check.  On the other side of the ball, the Rams' defensive line was every bit as disruptive as we feared whenever Wilson dropped back to throw, but Lynch and Turbin were able to pick up the slack in the second half and move the chains.

The difference in this game was special teams, where the strong, accurate leg of Greg Zuerlein helped the Rams to some points in yardages that would've had every other team in the league sending in the punt unit.  It's also hard to overestimate the importance of the TD throw by punter Johnny Hecker; had they kicked a field goal there instead the Seahawks would have only been down by two, allowing them to hand the ball off to Lynch on that last play to give Hauschka a shorter distance for a game-winning field goal try.

Either way, it's a tough loss in a winnable game for Seattle.  Feel free to get all the swearing out of your system in the comments below.

The Rams are better this year than last, particularly on defense, but a porous o-line and a distinct lack of reliable receivers not named Amendola should prove fatal for St. Louis' offense.  Leroy Hill is questionable for the game with a calf injury, but his possible absence is more than made up for by Rams left tackle Rodger Saffold being ruled out for the game.  I'm looking forward to seeing how often Bradford gets hit on his blindside by Clemons.

For Seattle, the starting lineup has changed once again (what else is new?), with James Carpenter playing at left guard and McQuistan likely sliding over to fill in at right guard for an injured John Moffitt.  The news isn't all bad though, as both Doug Baldwin and Breno Giacomini are listed as probable (there was some doubt earlier in the week as to whether Giacomini would be able to play).  Rams CB Cortland Finnegan and DEs Chris Long and Robert Quinn will likely cause some problems, but keep an eye out for first round pick DT Michael Brockers.  He missed the first three games of the season with an ankle sprain, but the coaches in St. Louis are expecting great things from him.  Assuming he lives up to everyone's expectations, he could be a headache for the Seahawks o-line for years to come.

Through three weeks of play, the Seahawks have showcased an impressive number of top-flight abilities.  One of the stoutest run defenses in the league?  Check.  An intimidating, physical secondary?  Check.  Great special teams play regardless of whether they’re on the giving or receiving end of things?  Check.  A pile-driver of a run game?  You better believe that’s a check.

A yardage-chewing, big play passing attack?  That, not so much.

Like most defensive-minded coaches, Pete Carroll prefers running the ball to throwing it.  A solid rushing attack eats up time so the defense can rest, it’s much less likely to result in turnovers than the passing game, and instead of having to outthink your opponent in a route combo versus coverage scheme chess match you get to just overpower and beat them up.  What can I say, defensive guys love a good brawl.

With rookie Russell Wilson under center this year, that preference has been exaggerated even more than usual.  How exaggerated?  Well, the average NFL quarterback throws in the neighborhood of 35 passes a game.  Through week three, Wilson is averaging just 25.

As game plans go, it’s not a bad move.  It takes some pressure off the quarterback to carry the offense, and once you’ve got the opposing defense fixated on just stopping the run you can toss some deep balls over their heads.  Or at least, that’s how it should work in theory.

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