Playoffs?

Written by Louis Bacigalupi on .

Louis Bacigalupi posts comments on the site as LouieLouie.  He’s an accountant by trade and worked in a USFL front office.  He can be reached by email at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .

Don’t talk about playoffs. Actually, let’s talk about the playoffs.  We could get all hung up on tie-breaker scenarios and the what-ifs, but if the Seahawks can get to 10-6 they should be in the playoffs.  As everyone knows, to do that the Hawks will need a 6-2 record in the last half of the season.  Well, two Ws are down (the Vikings and Jets), so there are four Ws left to go.  A win in Miami after the bye week would help immensely.

The Thursday night game on NFL Network this week should be of particular interest to Seahawks fans because it involves two of their upcoming road opponents, the Bills and Dolphins.  While neither matchup will be a cakewalk, both of those games are winnable.  The Monday night game should also be of interest, because the Seahawks also have upcoming games against the Bears and 49ers.

The Seahawks will be well-rested when they face Miami after the bye week, but because they play on Thursday this week the Dolphins will play the Hawks after a couple of extra days off as well.  The Titans, who are not exactly a juggernaut, went into Miami last week and put a pretty good whooping on them.  I like Seattle’s chances of flying out of the sunshine state with a W (and maybe some fresh-squeezed orange juice, too).  Joe Philbin, Miami’s coach, said that the Titans “played well, they played fast, and they played decisively.”  Does that remind anyone of a certain football team’s defense?  (I’ll give you a hint: they play in a place called the Clink.)

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill threw three picks against Tennessee, and the Hawks’ secondary is much better than the Titans’.  Tannehill is also very mobile, but so was Cam Newton in Carolina and the Seahawks roughed him up quite a bit.  There has been much written about Russell Wilson’s road woes, but he played very well on the road in Detroit.  The defense lost that game, and I wouldn’t expect that to happen very often.  Wilson has also been getting better every week.  If the Hawks can minimize mistakes and play well, fast, and decisively they should beat Miami.

The toughest games should be against San Francisco and Chicago.  If the Seahawks are truly a playoff team they should be capable of beating both of those teams, but going 1-1 for those two games would be just fine.  If the Hawks can win out at home, including against the 49ers, they would only need to win one of the three remaining road games to get into the playoffs.  Doing even better and going 5-1 in the remaining six games for an 11-5 season record isn’t that far out of the question.

The tie between the 49ers and the Rams could make for a very tight finish for the division this year.  If the Seahawks can beat San Francisco (the division title and possibly a first round bye could be on the line in that game), they could be in position to win the NFC West.  Stranger things have happened.  It’s nice to have the Hawks back in the conversation.

Miscellaneous Notes and Observations

Man, can Golden Tate catch and jump or what?  The guy’s playing like a madman, much less like an excellent late 2nd round draft pick.  He had a huge impact in both of the last two wins.  His leap for a touchdown reception against Minnesota and his pass for a touchdown against the Jets were both top ten plays of the week, and it was his catch earlier this season against the Packers that wound up settling the referee’s strike.  I don’t know how common it is for one player to catch a TD pass and throw one in the same game, but Tate got ‘er done [According to Pro Football Reference.com, Tate's performance on Sunday is the 49th time it's been done since 1960.  Who knew?  -Ed.

His leap on 3rd and 5 for a first down was a thing of beauty.  With all of his leaping over defenders, I hope Tate doesn’t end up getting injured like Leonard Weaver did in Philadelphia, but if he keeps playing at this level for the rest of the season the guy could wind up in the Pro Bowl.  [The last player to go to the Pro Bowl for Seattle as a wide receiver was Brian Blades in 1989.  WR Alex Bannister went in 2003, but he was chosen as a special teamer. –Ed.]

Darrell Bevell’s play calling is evolving nicely.  He’s grown from ultra-conservative (i.e. always run on 1st down, always run on 2nd down) to having wide receivers throw touchdown passes.  I’m down with that.  Of course, his play calling early in the season was conservative because he had a rookie quarterback starting, but the way in which he and Pete Carroll have brought Russell Wilson along is a masterstroke in the making.

I wouldn’t say that Richard Sherman is a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback, I’d say he’s an all-pro cornerback and sack specialist.  Against the Jets, he had a 100% sack and forced fumbler rate per blitz.  Not bad for a 5th round pick.  I cannot think of any corner in the league that I would trade straight across for Sherman.  Besides, he gets the Seahawks in the national news with some regularity.  Are you mad?

Penalties have been much less of a problem the last four games.  The physical play hasn’t let up, but the bubblehead penalties have.  Nobody wants to see the Hawks lose their nasty edge, but it would seem that penalty rates are like setting the idle on a finely-tuned engine.  If there are too many penalties, it’s like setting the gas mixture too rich; the engine burns too much fuel, becomes inefficient, and its performance is affected. 

Likewise, too weak a gas mixture causes an engine to sputter the same way too few penalties makes a team soft and in need of a dirtbag infusion.  If the players aren’t exploring the grey areas in the rules, they’ll never know how much they can get away with.  I liked that earier in the year the Patriots’ receivers were worried about getting hammered, which caused a lot of dropped passes.  Receivers should always be worried about the Seahawks’ defenders, and Kam Chancellor and company will make sure that they are.

For now, I guess we’ll have to endure the bye week.  Maybe I’ll go shopping with my wife or something.  But after that, the next stop is the playoffs.

Playoffs?
 

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How the Seahawks Measure Up: Week 10 Edition

Written by Matthew Heuett on .

(Note: Since I was redoing my spreadsheets anyway, I went ahead and revamped the tables I've been using for the stats articles as well.  That part took a heck of a lot longer than I thought it would, but such is life.)

Entering their bye week, the Seahawks’ record stands at 6-4 with six games left to play in the season.  Last year, the team was 4-6 after ten games, and in 2010 they were 5-5 with three of those wins coming against some truly awful Rams and Cardinals squads.

It wasn’t that long ago that most everyone pretty much took it as a given that the Seahawks were probably going to lose whenever they played a top-ten team.  We’d still scream our throats out for the Hawks to win, but we all knew that a victory was probably not going to happen.  This year, they’ve beaten the Patriots and their 1st-ranked offense as well as the Packers and their 10th-ranked offense and 9th-ranked defense. The Vikings sit just outside that top tier with their 14th-ranked offense and defense, but their 6-4 season record is reason enough to be proud of that win, too.

And as frustrating as all four losses have been, they only lost by an average of 5.25 points in those games.  Compare that to 2011, when the Seahawks were outscored in their losses by an average of 9.78 points, or 2010, when nine regular season opponents blew them out of the water by a 21 point average margin of victory.

After this bye week, the Seahawks will face two back-to-back road games in Miami and Chicago that may very well determine whether they make the playoffs this year.  The Dolphins have been surprisingly good this year, although the strongest team they’ve managed to beat so far is the Bengals, and the Bears’ 2nd ranked defense is at or near the top of the league in nearly every statistical category.  If they win one of those games, they should have a good shot at winning a wild card berth; if they win both, wresting the division crown from the 49ers falls within the realm of possibility, too.

(Note, for explanations of some of the stats included in this piece, please see the first article in the series.)

Rushing Averages
 

Game Yards/Rushing Attempt Yards/Game  

Yards/Rushing Attempt Allowed

Yards/Game Allowed

1 (ARI)

3.48 115   2.15 43
2 (DAL) 4.44 182   3.06 49
3 (GB) 4.38 127   4.00 84
4 (STL) 5.26 179   2.78 75
5 (CAR) 2.80 98   4.32 82
6 (NE) 3.27 85   3.35 87
7 (SF) 4.69 136   5.47 175
8 (DET) 7.00 133   3.82 84
9 (MIN) 4.33 195   9.00 243
10 (NYJ) 4.05 174   3.82 84
Total

4.26 (11th)

142.4 (7th)   4.34 (21st) 100.6 (12th)



After a statistical drop in weeks five and six, over the last four games the Seahawks’ rushing stats have moved back up into the 4+ yds/att territory where they belong.  Really, when you’ve got a runner like Marshawn Lynch in your backfield, anything less is unacceptable.  

That said, there’s a false positive lurking in the stats here.  Seattle’s rushing attack performed well against the 49ers, Vikings, and Jets, but Lynch’s 77-yard touchdown run in the Lions game artificially inflated the numbers for what was an otherwise lackluster showing.  The Seahawks averaged just 3.11 yds/att on every other carry in that game, and Lynch himself posted a dismal 2.33 yds/att on his 11 other rushing attempts.  Being able to pull off explosive plays like that is important to the success of any offense, but it’s no substitute for being able to sustain an acceptable level of production throughout a whole game.

Individually, Lynch is currently averaging 4.74 yds/att this season, plus he’s now officially rushed for 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons with the Seahawks.  Better yet, he’s only 26, so as long as the team watches his touches and doesn’t wear him out unnecessarily (he’s already racked up 212 carries this season) there should be plenty of Beast Mode left in his tank.  His backup Robert Turbin is doing respectably well, averaging 3.98 yds/att on his 42 carries.  He’s not quite the battering ram that Lynch is, but he’s a shifty runner and it doesn’t take him long to accelerate up to full speed.

Unfortunately, the run defense has not fared quite so well.  At the beginning of the season, the Seahawks’ ability to stonewall opposing running backs was widely considered to be one of the team’s core strengths, but over the last four weeks they’ve allowed teams to rush for an average of 5.67 yds/att.  It’s one thing to get mauled by a great run blocker like the 49ers’ Mike Iupati or an all-pro runner like the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson, but it’s quite another to let the Lions’ Mikel Leshoure run you over for 4.6 yds/att.

The middle of the line has been particularly vulnerable, so Bobby Wagner has a share in the blame here, but I’ve also been seing Brandon Mebane and Alan Branch get shoved backwards on a concerning number of plays.  Unless the team has been violating league rules by keeping those two off the daily injury reports, I’m not entirely sure what their problem has been.  Here’s hoping the coaching staff can correct whatever’s gone wrong during the bye week, ‘cause I’m not enjoying the sight of opposing rushers bursting into the clear at top speed with Seahawks defenders trailing in their wake.

(To continue reading, please click on "Read More" below.)

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Week 10 - Seahawks Win! (R-Rated Thread)

Written by Matthew Heuett on .

The offense looked ugly in the early going, giving up turnovers and making the Jets look like they've got a legitimate pass rush, but an improved second half performance combined with Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow hosting an all-game clinic on how not to play the QB position ultimately led to a nice, satisfying victory.

Also, I love how well the Seahawks are executing on Wilson's option runs and those wide receiver passes.  First Sidney Rice, and now Golden Tate -- how many receivers do you think will get a shot at tossing the ball downfield this year, anyway?  I'm going to really enjoy re-watching this one when the All-22 film comes out.  Do your worst in the comments below.

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Week 10: Jets at Seahawks (Game Thread)

Written by Matthew Heuett on .

Today's game against the Jets is an important one to win for the Seahawks.  The Hawks have won several games already that everyone expected them to lose, only to turn right around and lose games they should've won handily.  The passing game has improved significantly and RB Marshawn Lynch is still Marshawn Lynch, but the defense has had some trouble in its last few outings defending runs up the gut and with their coverage in the underneath middle zones. 

Injury-wise, Seattle looks like a team in sore need of a bye week.  LB K.J. Wright and LG James Carpenter have been ruled out again this week with concussion symptoms, DE Greg Scruggs is doubtful, DT Clinton McDonald is questionable, and there's a whole laundry list of key players who are just banged up enough to be listed as probable, including Lynch, DE Red Bryant, WR Doug Baldwin, SS Kam Chancellor, C Max Unger, and CB Richard Sherman.

The Jets are not a good team this year.  Their starting quarterback, Mark Sanchez, is the sort of borderline talent that Seattle's defense should eat alive.  He responds poorly to pressure, his accuracy is erratic (he's had four games with completion percentages under 50%), his star wide receiver Santonio Holmes is on injured reserve, and Tony Sparano's offense hasn't done him any favors, either.  Their star wide receiver, Santonio Holmes, is on injured reserve.  Don't even get me started on backup QB Tim Tebow and his horrific throwing mechanics.

New York does have a decent running back in Shonn Greene, although he's averaging a lukewarm 3.7 yds/att this season, and a strong receiving tight end in Dustin Keller, whom Sanchez hasn't been getting the ball to nearly enough.  One of their other bright spots, an explosive,  top-five return game spearheaded by returner Joe McKnight, is going to be hamstrung this week because McKnight is out with an ankle injury.

On defense, they've been hurt by the absence of Darrelle Revis, who went on IR early in the year, and their starting nose tackle Kenrick Ellis is out with a knee injury. Their pass rush has also been pretty anemic this year, as not one Jets defender has more than two sacks to his name and the team has managed only 12 total sacks this year (for comparison, the Seahawks have 25).  CB Antonio Cromartie and S LaRon Landry are two big reasons why the team has performed well in pass coverage despite the loss of Revis, but their run defense hasn been weak.  I would really like to see Russell Wilson help out Lynch by making some things happen through the air against a strong pass defense.

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Stats, the Fate of the App, and Other Miscellanea

Written by Matthew Heuett on .

This semester, my eldest daughter is taking a child psychology course at her high school, and as part of that class she and her classmates help out in a daycare center run by the school.  Normally, all she brings home from there are cute stories about tiny children doing childreny things, but this week she brought home some sort of death flu instead.  But despite the fever and the congestion and the general unpleasantness, I kept chipping away at this week's stats article so that by the time the fever broke last night all I had left to do is give it a quick editorial run-through this morning and get it out to you. 

At least, that was the plan.  As I started to review the work I'd done, I discovered that not only were my latest calculations wildly innacurate, I had screwed up large portions of my spreadsheets for previous games, too. And when I say screwed up, I mean stuff like 50 completions on 28 attempts for Wilson against the 49ers, a 15 yds/att rushing average for the Cardinals, and a mostly complete set of special teams stats listed for the upcoming Dolphins game (Jon Ryan's good, but I don't think he's likely to average 110 yards per punt).  Apparently basic math and data entry don't mix well with cold medicines and delirium -- who knew? 

Thankfully, fixing it is a simple matter of loading up the blank template I made and re-entering the data from my notes, but that's going to take time.  Barring any more surprise gifts from those diminutive plague-bearers at the daycare center, you can expect to see an up-to-date stats article early next week.

*        *        *

When I put up that post earlier in the week asking users of the Seahawk Addicts app for feedback, I expected to get a few emails, maybe thirty or forty at the outside.  Oh, how wrong I was.  I received hundreds of emails from you guys -- that first day, my inbox was snowed under at a rate of one new email every two to three minutes -- and they're still trickling in.

Now, I've never cared too terribly much about site traffic, 'cause I'd still be writing these articles even if there were only three or four people reading them.  Even so, it was really quite humbling to find out just how many of you are out there following the site.  I heard from Seahawks fans in Germany and France, from grandmothers in their 60s and 70s, from people who like to use it to catch up on Seahawks news during long meetings at work, I even heard from one fan who's been using it to read Seahawks articles to a quadriplegic family member who's currently in the hospital. 

As one email so eloquently put it, removing the app "would be a dumbass move," and I agree.  The Seahawk Addicts app is here to stay.

The main complaint I received from you all is that it doesn't allow users to comment on the articles, and unfortunately after talking to the folks over at our host site Bloguin it would appear that the Livefyre software our comment system uses is completely incompatible with the way the app reads and displays articles.  However, they also informed me that they are almost done building a mobile version of the site, and once it's complete you'll be able to read articles as well as view and post comments by visiting the site using your mobile device's web browser.  I'll let you know when that gets released, but the app will still be in service if you prefer to keep using it instead. And if you're into the whole Facebook thing, we have a page there as well (link) that Mike Parker updates regularly.

Several of you also mentioned that you don't want to view comments because you're certain they would be filled with all manner of inflammatory opinons, but nothing could be farther from the truth.  I know the comment threads on most sports websites are filled to the brim with bloviating assholes, but Seahawk Addicts has always had the good fortune of attracting polite, intelligent sorts who can kick back and talk about their favorite team without resorting to name-calling and temper tantrums. 

We do get the occasional bigoted moron (usually a fan of a team the Seahawks recently played) who stumbles in and spews bile for a post or two, but when they show up everyone quickly and cheerfully hands the twit his ass on a platter and sends him packing.  Really, aside from the R-rated postgame threads I put up so everyone has a place to get all the venting and swearing out of their system, there's rarely anything said in the comments that you wouldn't feel comfortable sharing with your dear sweet old granny. 

*        *        *

I received an announcement the other day that Lawyer Milloy will be hosting a football summer camp in 2013.  The camp runs from July 14 - 17 at Pacific Lutheran University in Tacoma, and you can read more about it here.  Lawyer Milloy and Golden Tate will be on hand for sure, and other Seahawks players may make appearances as well.

I don't know a lot of the details (like how much it costs to attend), but I figured those of you with young football-playing Seahawks fans at home would appreciate the heads-up.  For more information, you can contact Sheldon Bell by email at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or by phone at 301-575-9413.

*        *        *

This last item isn't Seahawks specific, but it's interesting nonetheless.  The graphic, which was forwarded to me by one of its creators, is targeted at accountants (it was created for the blog portion of AccountingDegree.com) and describes some of the financial troubles NFL players have experienced towards the end of their careers and afterwards.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to go chug some Dayquil.

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Charly Martin Released

Written by Matthew Heuett on .

Earlier today, the Seahawks released wide receiver Charly Martin.  It's presumed that the move was made in order to make room for cornerback Walter Thurmond, but Thurmond still hasn't been officially activated off of the physically unable to play list.

As much as I like the idea of having Thurmond available again, I'm a bit torn about cutting Martin.  He isn't the most talented receiver, but he has a nice feel for the slot position and he's a game blocker downfield.  That said, he's been inactive most games, and in the games he was active he only caught three of the six passes that targeted him (it should be noted that his total still puts him ahead of tight end Evan Moore, who has zero catches to show for his five targets).

Besides, with Doug Baldwin coming back from his high ankle sprain earlier than expected, wide receiver isn't as great a position of need as cornerback, and that goes double if Braylon Edwards' knee has healed enough for him to play.  The two main backup CBs on the Seahawks' roster are Marcus Trufant and Byron Maxwell, which should make any fan uneasy right now.  Trufant ended the year on injured reserve in two of his last three seasons, and Maxwell has a hamstring injury that has forced him to miss six games already.  Granted, Thurmond's track record with injuries isn't much better than theirs, but his coverage skills are far superior to those of the only other CB on the team, rookie Jeremy Lane.

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Calling All App Users

Written by Matthew Heuett on .

Since I took over the site last year, the only feedback I've ever heard about the Seahawk Addicts app has been in emails from people who have nothing but complaints of one sort or another with the program.  So, the other day I mentioned in a comment thread that I was thinking about removing the links to download the app from the site.  I mean, I've never used it, since I don't own any tablets or smart phones, and all I'd ever heard was negative feedback, so surely that was the correct move, right?

After that, I started receiving emails from people just to tell me I'd be making a big mistake by removing those links.  They love the app, they said, and moreover they insisted that there were a lot of readers out there who access the site exclusively through that program and told me that I would be making a huge mistake if I got rid of it.

Naturally, this made me curious to find out how many of you out there like the app and use it on a regular basis.  I decided to delay this post until Bloguin rolled out the new site templates, but now that that's done I figured it was high time I asked you guys for some feedback.  How well does the app work for you?  Does everything (text, links, images, etc.) display properly?  Is there anything that could use some tweaking?  Are the Livefyre comments still not accessible via the app?

To voice your opinion, please respond in the comment thread below or send an email to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with "Seahawk Addicts App" in the subject line.  Depending on the feedback I get, I might look into what it might cost to address any problems you guys might be having, up to and including updating the app so that it's compatible with Livefyre.  I'm not making any promises, but if I can afford to improve your reading experience I will.

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The Seahawks' Coverage Problems versus the Lions

Written by Matthew Heuett on .

[Note: This article was supposed to go up late last week, but due to other concerns it had to go unfinished until now.  But while the subject matter is a bit past tense, if nothing else I figured it’d serve as a nice frame of reference when I take a look at the game tape for the Vikings game.]

The Seahawks’ pass coverage against the Lions was ugly, and looking at it on the all-22 tape didn’t make it any prettier.  I’m hoping I don’t have to sit through another film session like that anytime soon, but here are the four main things I learned this time around:

1) Trufant was not bad in coverage.

After the game, I mentioned in the comments that I thought Trufant was a big part of the Seahawks’ problem in coverage against the Lions.  As it turns out, I was wrong on that account, because the impression I got from the broadcast footage was not supported by what I saw on the coaches’ film.  Granted, there’s a big difference between saying his performance wasn’t bad and saying he played well, but Trufant appeared to be assignment-correct throughout the game and when a play went in his direction he generally put himself in a good position to attempt a pass breakup or help clean up someone else’s mess.

I still think the Seahawks could use an upgrade over Trufant at the nickel back position, but I’m not going to let my general disgust with his play over the last few seasons prevent me from admitting to a mistake when I’ve made one.

(To continue reading, please click on “Read More” below.)
 

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Week 9 - Seahawks Win! (R-Rated Thread)

Written by Matthew Heuett on .

Adrian Peterson is a hell of a running back (losing K.J. Wright early hurt the run defense in a big way), but it's hard to win games when your quarterback only manages to throw for 62 yards.

More importantly, the Seahawks offense was able to overcome some bad drops early on and move the chains when it needed to most, thanks in large part to a good performance by Russell Wilson and a great one by Marshawn Lynch.  And hey, how about Golden Tate selling out to get the ball across the goal line in the second quarter, or Marcus Trufant recovering his own forced fumble?

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Week 9: Vikings at Seahawks (Game Thread)

Written by Matthew Heuett on .

This afternoon, the Seahawks begin the second half of their schedule with a home game against the Vikings.  A win for Seattle is likely, but by no means assured.  Minnesota has plenty going its way right now with QB Christian Ponder, WR Percy Harvin, and RB Adrian Peterson all playing well this year on offense, but they've still got some rebuilding to do.

The Seahawks appear to be getting WR Doug Baldwin back for this game, but that's the extent of the good news when it comes to injuries.  DT Jason Jones and WR Braylon Edwards are both out for the game, as is LG James Carpenter, who is a surprise scratch this week due to a concussion.  John Moffitt will likely be returning to the lineup at right guard, which mean Swiss army knife backup Paul McQuistan would slide over to replace Carpenter at left guard.  Also, CB Walter Thurmond still has yet to be activated off of PUP.

Due to circumstances, the article on the Seahawks' pass coverage issues against the Lions won't be going up until Monday (trust me, I'd much rather have it done than be slogging through yet another ugly week's worth of circumstances), but for now I'll summarize: LBs Bobby Wagner and Leroy Hill were weak points, NB Marcus Trufant was surprisingly okay, and the defense seems to perform much better when it's asked to do more man coverage than zone.  Basically, if you see the Hawks' linebackers stand rigidly in place ten yards back from the line of scrimmage while Harvin does his best Wes Welker impression on underneath routes, you might want to start worrying.

Also, the Vikings are 23rd in the NFL in sacks allowed, so this would be a great time for Clemons and Irvin to step up and do their thing.

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