| 11 September 2009
How will the Seahawks do this year? In 2008, we entered the regular season with hope abounding, certain we would continue our dominance within the lowly NFC West. I predicted the Seahawks would finish 10-6 in 2008, while Steffes was slightly more bullish at 11-5. We were both, um, a little bit off. After a shameful 4-12 effort, the Seahawks look to rebound and re-assert their dominance of the NFC West.
This is a very different team than last years. There is a different mindset -- from Offensive genius to defensive upstart headcoach; from small and fast defense to big and disruptive; from pass run run offense to run run pass; from man blocking to zone blocking offensive line... The list goes on almost interminably. This is a different team. These are different players.
In 2008, we had 11 starters returning on defense (that's 100% for you non-math whizzes). For 2009, have six returning starters (Mebane, Kerney, Hill, Tatupu, Grant, Trufant/Wilson) and five new ones (Redding, Cole, Curry, Lucas and Babineaux).
How will the Seahawks do though? Here's a preliminary, quick-hitting synopsis of where I think we stand as of right now, and how I think we'll get through it. Read More to continue!
FIRST QUARTER:
Week 1 - vs. St. Louis Rams - The Rams are a team inspired by their new coach and new system, but lacking the personnel to put together a full football team. This game means everything if we lose, and nothing if we win.
Week 2 - @ San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers are another team with a new(ish) coach, new philosophy, and a few new players. I believe they will be the second best team in the division by the time everything shakes out. Still, with a stout front seven against a 60% run team, I think the Hawks pull off this crucial road victory.
Week 3 - vs. Chicago Bears - The biggest test thus far, the Bears have a solid, playmaking defense and a much better offense. Matt Forte is the real deal, and Jay "Da Butlah" Cutler is a phenomenal talent. He doesn't have much in the way of WRs though, and I don't see Hester getting off the line well against the press-specialist Ken Lucas. If Curry can cover Greg Olsen, we should pull this out in a squeaker.
Week 4 - @ Indianapolis Colts - Our first 10 am road game of the year, and a crucial lesson for the fans at how well Mora is really doing as far as preparing his team for the road. This will be the first time that our secondary is really tested. As such, it seems unlikely (without seeing our defense on the field yet) that the Hawks can pull off this big upset.
First Quarter Belief: 3 - 1
First Quarter Downside: 1-3
SECOND QUARTER
Week 5 - vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jags are in a rebuilding mode and don't appear to have much going for them outside of MJD. Unless he pulls off a career day and we fall into a hole, I think this is a victory.
Week 6 - vs. Arizona Cardinals - This is a huge game, obviously, but I think we stand a chance. Fitzgerald and Boldin will have success with either Warner or Lienart, but without a healthy running game and with a questionable defense, I think there is plenty that the Hawks can exploit. I give us the edge.
Week 7 - Bye
Week 8 - @ Dallas Cowboys - The Hawks are bad after their bye, bad at 10 am, and bad at containing DeMarcus Ware. The odds are stacked against us here, and I think we lose to an inferior Cowboys team.
Week 9 - vs. Detroit Lions - The Lions will be better this year. They can't be worse. Still, they just don't have the firepower to go against a serious team yet. Look for Peterson to come out guns blazing, but it won't be enough to stop us.
Second Quarter Belief: 3-1
Second Quarter Downside: 2-2
THIRD QUARTER
Week 10 - @ Arizona Cardinals - By Week 10, I think there is a good chance that the Cardinals have imploded. There is also a good chance that they have really started to gel. I can't get a good read on them, and I don't think they can either based on Adrian Wilson's comments early this week. They were fantastic at home last year, so I give them the edge here.
Week 11 - @ Minnesota Vikings - Best Line, Best RB, Top 3 defense. That's what the Vikings look like going into this season. I don't believe in their passing game, regardless of who is under center. Because it's a road game at 10 am in a very hostile setting, I give the Vikes the edge.
Week 12 - @ St. Louis Rams - This will be a closer game than Week 1, but I just don't see it happening. The Rams are still a year or two out, minimum.
Week 13 - vs. San Francisco 49ers - Again, a good team and the last chance for us to play against the NFC West. I am confident that we will give the 49ers a challenge both games, but I think its possible they upset us in either. I'll give us the win for now.
Third Quarter Belief: 2-2
Third Quarter Downside: 1-3
FOURTH QUARTER
Week 14 - @ Houston Texans - Schaub is among the most injury prone people in the league. If he hasn't sneezed and blown out his sinuses, and if Andre Johnson is healthy, and if Steve Slaton is healthy, the Texans are a great team. Again, 10 am road game against a good-to-very good team, I got to give them the edge based on History. Going into the week though, I imagine I'll expect us to win.
Week 15 - vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sorry, but I don't see the Bucs pulling it together, especially not in Qwest. This year is a rebuilding one to the Nth degree for them.
Week 16 - @ Green Bay Packers - If the Packers play like the looked capable of playing in the preseason, they run away with the North and possibly the NFC. In Lambeau, in December, at 10 am, I say no to a Hawks win.
Week 17 - vs. Tennessee Titans - The Titans proved in their Week One game that they still have a very stout defense, especially against the run (average of 1.5 yards per carry). It's a tough game, but at home with a possible week one bye on the line, I think we pull it off.
Fourth Quarter Belief: 2-2
Fourth Quarter Downside - 1-3
REGULAR SEASON
Chris' Projection: 10 - 6
Downside Projection: 5 - 11
NFC WEST PROJECTION:
1. Seattle Seahawks: 10 - 6
2. San Francisco 49ers: 8-8
3. Arizona Cardinals: 7-9
4. St Louis Rams: 5-11
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