Good Old Statistical Analysis

Well, maybe not really. But kinda. What I have here is, in spreadsheet format, a look at every RB and TE taken in the first two rounds since 1997.

Most Seahawk fans are of the opinion that these are the two biggest needs on the offense. While some may argue guard, few seem to expect that a guard from the draft could contribute right away. Considering that it appears much more likely that we will fill the hole at guard via free agency, than the holes at RB or TE, i am willing to discuss the merits of drafting these positions. However, the assumption most Hawks are working with is that a rookie RB and/or rookie TE will contribute immediately. So the question I ask is, will they??

Remember as you look at this that Seahawks' will be drafting out of the #25 slot and the #55 slot. That will give you a better idea of what level of prospect will be available...

Player	Position	Pick #	year	carries/catches	yards	tds	yrds/per
W.Dunn	RB	12	1997	224	978	4	4.37
T.Gonzolez	TE	13	1997	33	368	2	11.15
Antowain Smith	RB	23	1997	194	840	8	4.33
David Lafleur	TE	22	1997	18	122	2	6.78
Tiki Barber	RB	36	1997	136	511	3	3.76
John Allred	TE	38	1997	8	70	0	8.75
Corey Dillion	RB	43	1997	233	1129	10	4.85
Curtis Enis	RB	12	1998	133	497	0	3.74
Fred Taylor	RB	9	1998	264	1223	14	4.63
Robert Edwards	RB	18	1998	291	1115	9	3.83
John Avery	RB	29	1998	143	503	2	3.52
Cam Cleeland	TE	40	1998	54	684	6	12.67
Stephen Alexander	TE	48	1998	37	383	4	10.35
Rod Rutledge	TE	54	1998	no	stats	avail
Edge James	RB	4	1999	368	1549	13	4.21
Ricky Willliams	RB	5	1999	253	884	2	3.49
Regie Kelly	TE	42	1999	8	146		18.25
Rob Conrad	RB	43	1999	No	Stats	Avail
Jim Kleinsasser	TE	44	1999	6	13		2.17
Kevin Faulk	RB	49	1999	67	227	1	3.39
Joe Montgomery	TE	49	1999	115	348	3	3.03
Mike Cloud	RB	54	1999	35	128		3.66
Jermaine Fazande	RB	60	1999	91	365	2	4.01
Jamal Lewis	RB	5	2000	309	1364	6	4.41
Thomas Jones	RB	7	2000	112	373	2	3.33
Ron Dayne	RB	11	2000	228	770	5	3.38
Shaun Alexander	RB	19	2000	64	313	2	4.89
Anthony Becht	RB	27	2000	16	144	2	9.00
Trung Canidate	Rb	31	2000	3	6		2.00
Ladanian Tomlinson	Rb	5	2001	339	1236	10	3.65
Deuce Mcallister	RB	23	2001	16	91	1	5.69
Michael Bennet	RB	27	2001	172	682	2	3.97
Todd Heap	TE	31	2001	16	206	1	12.88
Algae Crumpler	TE	35	2001	25	330	3	13.20
Anthony Thomas	RB	38	2001	278	1183	7	4.26
Lamont Jordan	RB	49	2001	39	292	1	7.49
Travis Henry	RB	58	2001	213	729	4	3.42
Jeremy Shockey	TE	14	2002	74	894	2	12.08
William Green	RB	16	2002	243	887	6	3.65
TJ Duckett	RB	18	2002	130	507	4	3.90
Daniel Graham	TE	21	2002	15	150	1	10.00
Jerramy Stevens	TE	25	2002	26	252	3	9.69
Deshaun Foster	RB	34	2002	113	429	0	3.80
Clintion Portis	RB	51	2002	273	1508	15	5.52
Maurice Morris	RB	54	2002	32	153	0	4.78
Ladell Betts	RB	56	2002	65	307	1	4.72
Willis McGahee	RB	23	2003	284	1128	13	3.97
Dallas Clark	TE	24	2003	29	340	1	11.72
Larry Johnson	RB	27	2003	20	85	1	4.25
Bennie Joppru	TE	41	2003	No	Stats	Avail
LJ Smith	TE	61	2003	27	321	1	11.89
Steven Jackson	RB	24	2004	134	673	4	5.02
Chris Perry	RB	26	2004	2	1	0	0.50
Kevin Jones	RB	30	2004	241	1133	5	4.70
Ben Watson	TE	32	2004	2	16	0	8.00
Ben Troupe	TE	40	2004	33	329	1	9.97
Tatum Bell	RB	41	2004	75	396	3	5.28
Julius Jones	RB	43	2004	197	819	7	4.16
Gregg Jones	RB	55	2004	62	162	3	2.61
Kris Wilson	TE	61	2004	0	0	0
Ronnie Brown	RB	2	2005	207	907	4	4.38
Ced Benson	RB	4	2005	67	272	0	4.06
Carnell Williams	RB	5	2005	290	1178	6	4.06
Heath Milller	TE	30	2005	39	459	6	11.77
JJ Arrington	RB	44	2005	112	370	2	3.30
Eric Shelton	RB	54	2005	8	23	0	2.88
Reggie Bush	RB	2	2006	155	565	6	3.65
L. Maroney	RB	21	2006	175	745	6	4.26
D. Williams	RB	27	2006	121	501	1	4.14
Marcedes Lewis	TE	28	2006	13	126	1	9.69
Joe Addai	RB	30	2006	226	1021	7	4.52
Lendale White	RB	45	2006	61	244	0	4.00
Joe Klopfenstien	TE	46	2006	20	226	1	11.30
Anthony Fasono	TE	53	2006	14	126	0	9.00
Maurce Jones-Drew	RB	60	2006	166	941	13	5.67
Purple Jesus	RB	7	2007	238	1341	12	5.63
Mashaun Lynch	RB	12	2007	280	1115	7	3.98
Gregg Olsen	TE	31	2007	39	391	2	10.03
Zach Miller	TE	35	2007	44	444	3	10.09
Kenny Irons	RB	44	2007	no	stats	avail
Chris Henry	RB	50	2007	31	119	2	3.84
Brian Lenoard	RB	52	2007	86	303	0	3.52

Lets look at some things we know and how it affects the results, along with what is going on in the numbers...

1st- Players drafted later in rounds are being drafted to better teams. If you notice, the majority of the RB's taken in the top 15 do well, but it is pretty hit or miss after that. Obviously they may have greater success later. Look at Shaun Alexander taken with the 19th pick. However, we all know he was mentored by Ricky Watters that year and really exploded in the coming years. Larry Johnson was another example. You could call this the quality veteran factor. Good teams draft for the future, and if they want to stay good they easy rookies in slowly. The best example of this working quickly is Joe Addai, who started out behind Rhodes but was the better back by the end of the season. This is after Edge left, so Rhodes was closer to Morris than Alexander, if you follow my drift

2nd-- It would seem that the first TE off the board is always later than the top RB's. The one chosen highest was Tony Gonzalez, and everybody knew he was destined for greatness. Now looking closely, you will see that the top one or two TE's do pretty well their first year. If you notice though, a lot of the 3-10 TE's are guys who don't contribute and become busts. The anomaly here is 1999, where the first two TE's did nothing and the 3rd taken was a valuable contributer. Sometimes even the 2nd TE is a bust. LJ Smith is the one guy who was taken at the end of the second who has somewhat produced. Ben Watson was one of the few TE's taken first but did not contribute. The Pats had drafted Graham the year before, so call it a log jam atthe position. We know he turned out OK. The Seahawks once used the #25 pick to draft a TE, his name was Jerramy Stevens. He is the only Seahawk in history to score a TD in the Superbowl. He was a also a total dirtbag who may not find a job this year.

3rd- The theory of RB's being chosen late seems to hit. Plenty of guys taken late in the second do very well and begin contributing in their rookie years. Clinton Portis is one, however many will argue it was the Broncos system. How about Maurice Jones-Drew? Pretty good player from the 60th pick, even though he still isn't a featured back. His partner and possible HOFer Fred Taylor was taken with the 9th pick in 97'. That same draft, Corey Dillion blew up from the 43 slot. He was pretty good for while wasn't he. Finally, what have the Hawks done around 55 before? Well, they took Maurice Morris in the second round (after taking Stevens in the first) with #54. Solid player, but not what the Hawks really are looking for this time around.

So here is what I think. I think that if we want to win this year, we need to follow that same strategy we did in 2002. I think to get the most out of the rookies THIS YEAR we do better by taking the top TE in the draft (assuming he is available) and looking RB in the second. This is contingent on the RB splitting time with Morris and hoping to be featured more in the second half of the season ala Joe Addai. Now he was chosen in the late first, but this draft is much deeper at the top for running backs. If our scouting is solid, with a little luck, we could find a Joe Addai at 55. However, the chances of us finding a young Dallas Clark (#24, 03') at 55 are slim.

The other thing to consider is that it is possible that the top 1 or 2 TE's fall to 55? Probably at worst the third best TE could still be on the board. This is a deep TE class, but the #'s support the idea that to win NEXT year, we need one of top TE's

The funny part of this..... This is exactly the opposite of what I thought before looking at the #'s

UPDATE (11:39)- By the way, i have these stats all in a spread sheet. If anybody wants to chime in on what might be interesting ways to break them down, please suggest it. I have access to SPSS which can be used to evaluate the numbers in almost any way.